ween, there was already a buzz in the air for the next big retail shopping occasion. Companies like Walmart and Costco have both announced they are launching their promotions early this year — on November 8 and November 13, respectively.  Besides a desire to get a head start on the holiday shopping season, there are a few reasons why this previously one-day promotion has become a month-long shopping phenomenon.  According to Adobe Analytics, in 2022, shoppers spent approximately $9.12 billion on Black Friday, marking a 2.3 per cent increase from the year prior.  One of the major factors behind the increase in sales was the increased usage of buy now, pay later (BNPL) apps, which rose by 78 per cent in 2022 in comparison to 2021, and is expected to further drive up revenue in 2023. Demandsage, a data reporting and analytics firm, predicted that in shoppers will spend about $9.8 billion during Black Friday sales in 2023.  Cost of living concerns behind more aggressive discounts  As Kayla Marci, a senior retail analyst at the retail intelligence company Edited, explained, the “cost of living challenges have bled into 2023 and will impact the Golden Quarter,” the fourth quarter of the calendar year, when Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Christmas drive a major uplift in website traffic and revenue for retailers. With expectations that consumers will be a bit more hesitant to spend due to their current financial constraints, Marci predicts that retailers will be running promotions earlier and more competitively with a focus on festive products, like gifting, novelty knitwear, and homeware, to encourage consumers to shop. Will Black Friday sales become oversaturated? However, Neil Saunders, managing director and retail analyst at GlobalData, told Inside Retail that there are also drawbacks to starting Black Friday promotions earlier and earlier. The first major drawback is that “starting discounts earlier erodes margins as more product is sold at a discount; that’s not helpful for profitability,” Saunders said. “The second is that constant discounting trains consumers not to buy at full price and can damage brands. The third is that pushing Black Friday earlier reduces the interest in the day itself and the weekend following it.” At some point, “having constant Black Friday sales makes the whole concept of Black Friday increasingly irrelevant. It just becomes yet another day of discounting,” Saunders said. “We’ve already seen the footfall decline on Black Friday because consumers are shopping earlier in the season. Excessive discounting makes the whole occasion less special and makes it less interesting for shoppers.” He also cautioned that “this year, retailers need to be aware that consumers are very constrained and are looking for bargains on things they really want… Stuffing stores full of offers on random merchandise that is not that compelling isn’t going work as consumers are a lot more considerate [with their wallets].” Data gathered from Edited’s enterprise intelligence data concluded that Cyber Monday sales enticed the highest rate of new shoppers in 2022, at 44 per cent. Yet, more VIP customers were shopping on Thanksgiving Day, as retailers successfully appealed to this consumer group with access to Black Friday pre-sales and exclusive offers. “To succeed in 2023, retailers should consider their customer profiles and save competitive offers, free shipping, and returns to their most profitable consumer group,” Marci explained. She also warned retailers that in order “to avoid unnecessary margin erosion, brands must plan ahead and build reductions into cost price negotiations to stay competitive and capitalize on the event.”