machinery shipments to meet a rise in US orders, he risks levies being reimposed by the time the products arrive. “That made us feel pessimistic,” Ren said. “The more practical reality is that the North American market won’t be a priority for us.” Lower tariffs prompt some frontloading The divergent reactions underscore how deeply the US–China trade clashes have unsettled businesses and how fragile the longer-term relationship remains, even with the two presidents set to meet later this month to calm the waters. Still, unless the escalating US-Israeli conflict with Iran causes a lasting shock to global trade, the new US tariff regime, which is set to remain in place at least until July, could provide a window of opportunity for some Chinese factories. This could build on the strong export momentum in January and February and help power the Chinese economy towards growth of 4.5–5 per cent this year, while locking in the new markets it seized last year, accelerating its shift away from the US. “The broader US–China trade backdrop remains fragile, but for now, the tariff landscape is clearly more favorable for China,” said Deepali Bhargava, ING’s Asia-Pacific head of research. “It introduces upside potential for China’s export momentum in the near term. Chinese exporters may try to ship more goods quickly to lock in the lower tariff exposure while they can.” The Supreme Court ruling and Trump’s subsequent introduction of a 150-day global 10 per cent levy reduced the weighted US tariff rate for China to 22.3 per cent from 32.4 per cent, according to calculations by Capital Economics. Trump plans to raise global tariffs by another 5 points, but even so, it leaves Chinese producers much better placed than last year, when, at one stage, the two countries slapped embargo-like restrictions on each other. For producers like Chen, this represents an opportunity to ship as much product as possible before tensions return. Trump could still reimpose tariffs through alternative legal avenues – whether targeting specific sectors or, with congressional approval, certain regions – though these routes typically take longer to implement. “It looks like things might be better for us than before, but we haven’t figured out the exact numbers yet,” said Chen, adding that neither his firm nor the US factory has been affected by the Iran war so far. He noted that the ruling levels the playing field with rival producers from other countries – in his case, from Turkey. With Trump’s 10 per cent global levy and the industry sectors subject to their own tariffs taken into account, the Supreme Court’s ruling brought Washington’s effective global average tariff rate down by 3.8 percentage points, versus a 10-point reduction for China, Natixis estimates. If the global rate rises to 15 per cent, the average would drop by 2.2 points versus 7.1 points for China. “China is the biggest winner from the US court ruling,” the analysts said in a note. Diversification to continue Last year, China ran a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus as producers, boxed in by US trade tensions and weak domestic demand, pushed their goods into markets across the globe. Chinese shipments to the US fell 20 per cent in 2025, though it remains a top export destination. Shipments rose 25.8 per cent to Africa, 7.4 per cent to Latin America, 13.4 per cent to Southeast Asia and 8.4 per cent to the European Union last year. This trend is not expected to slow down in the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling, said Winnie Wang, president of the Shenzhen Cross-Border E-Commerce Association, whose members are accelerating expansion in emerging markets. Even Chen, who wants to take advantage of lower tariffs, is still pursuing markets along China’s Belt and Road global investment footprint, citing longer-term uncertainty. Another trend that might not change is the price pressure on Chinese products. When producers enter new markets, they are often competing not only with local firms but with one another – a stark sign of just how severe China’s industrial overcapacity has become. “Most of our competitors are Chinese companies, so in reality the pressure hasn’t decreased on anyone,” said a senior executive at a consumer goods manufacturer in east China, referring to competition for the US market. Reporting by Nicoco Chan in Shanghai; Joe Cash and Sophie Yu in Beijing; and Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles. Writing by Marius Zaharia. Editing by Shri Navaratnam. All courtesy of Reuters. Further reading: What does the Supreme Court ruling mean for Trump’s tariffs?