Over the next five years, big-box retail giant Target will be making some big moves to make up for less-than-spectacular sales figures in recent years. In 2024, Target’s net sales decreased by 0.8 per cent to $106.6 billion from $107.4 billion last year. This reflected a 0.1 per cent increase in comparable sales, contribution from new stores and growth in non-merchandise revenue, offset by the impact of one fewer week in 2024. The retailer’s full-year operating income of $5.6 billi
billion was down 2.5 per cent from the previous year’s $5.7 billion.
On March 4, Target outlined an aggressive five-year growth strategy to drive over $15 billion in sales growth by 2030.
The plan includes steps like offering enhanced newness, quality and relevance across the retailer’s product assortment, increasing ease, reliability and speed by investing in supply chain and fulfillment capabilities, remodeling older storefronts, new Target Circle benefits and “reinforcing Target as the destination for discovery by further blending its one-of-a-kind physical, digital and social commerce shopping experiences”.
Brian Cornell, Target’s chief executive officer, stated, “Shoppers continue to seek differentiated options and distinctive shopping experiences without sacrificing value, and Target has the scale, strategy and capabilities to support all the ways consumers shop and engage with brands.”
“With gains in consumer traffic, continuing improvements in speed and reliability, and accelerating growth across digital capabilities, we are doubling down on initiatives that scale these capabilities and drive meaningful top-line and bottom-line growth. Our strategy is all about creating today’s Tarzhay, offering everyday discovery and delight for millions of families and ensuring Target is a consumer favorite for years to come.”
While this plan certainly hits several key areas of growth for the company, several retail experts we spoke to are less than confident in “Tarzhay’s” potential to prevail.
As Steve Dennis, president and founder of SageBerry Consulting, told Inside Retail, “Target definitely needs to do something, both from a strategic and operational performance, as their performance has been poor for the past several years, particularly in relation to Walmart, their most direct competitor.”
Why does Target need such an aggressive comeback plan?
Without context, it may seem odd to some that a retailer of Target’s scale would need to invest in such an in-depth growth strategy.
However, recent changes in consumer sentiment, including the effects of the corporations’ pullback on DEI, and a lack of newness help to explain Target’s diminished position.
“Overall, Target is not a terrible retailer, far from it,” Neil Saunders, MD at GlobalData, previously told Inside Retail. However, he highlighted three main issues, including:
Inconsistent execution
While Target used to be a “sharp operator”, Saunders noted that in recent years, shabbiness has crept into the organization, particularly in stores.
“While things like out-of-stock items, aisles crowded with merchandise, and locked-up products may seem like minor factors, they all add up to a subpar experience, which pushes consumers to shop elsewhere,” Saunders pointed out.
‘A lack of newness’
“Aside from in some categories like beauty, the offer generally feels stale, and this discourages visitation and impulse purchasing,” Saunders said.
A “somewhat muddled position”
Target has not been as competitive when it comes to price and value, which has driven price-sensitive consumers to rivals like Walmart and Trader Joe’s for better pricing options.
Additionally, CI&T’s Melissa Minkow perceived that Target has been alienating its consumer base as of late, specifically with its scaling back on DEI efforts.
“Target did a great job of catering to the wants and expectations of its core customer for a long time, but I do feel they’ve been straying away from that north star for a while now,” said Minkow.
In 2023, Target experienced its steepest reputational decline after its diminished Pride Month displays resulted in consumer backlash and multiple boycotts. The retail player had a reputation-high score of 76.9, on a 100-point scale, in April 2023, which then plunged to a low of 60.9 in December of the same year.
Similarly, Target’s reputation score dropped from 73.8 in December 2024 to 66.3 in the first month of 2025, coinciding with the company scaling back its DEI initiatives on January 24.
What experts have to say about Target’s growth strategy
The general consensus amongst retail experts is that Target’s aggressive growth strategy is too poorly planned to be truly effective.
“I think Target’s goal is very ambitious. However, it almost had to make that commitment to satisfy investors after years of poor performance,” Saunders explained to Inside Retail.
“The problem for Target is that it faces stiffer competition and a softer market at a time when it is executing less well than it once did. In theory, a marketplace which offers a broader selection of products should generate incremental revenue, but Target is very late to this part and other players are already in this space.”
Similarly, Minkow doubts the retailer’s growth is achievable given the amount of spending pullback she is anticipating coming from consumers.
“If the economy were going to be more forgiving, their redirection might be more compelling, but there’s a significant amount of updating that needs to happen, from both a values perspective and overall strategy/experience perspective that will be very challenging to accomplish in a landscape where consumers are going to be extra choosy,” the CI&T director cautioned.
Experts like SageBerry’s Dennis believe that Target’s mission to regain its ranking in the retail industry will be an “uphill battle”, as the company is focusing on keeping up versus truly standing out.
He noted that ost of the elements of the new strategy, like investing in private label brands, “are just slightly repackaged or a bit more aggressive versions of what they’ve been doing”.
Other parts of Target’s plan “like expanding marketplaces, retail media networks, membership program investments are what everyone else has been doing, especially Walmart. Most of this [effort] seems to either comparatively incremental or just keeping pace.”
One retail expert with faith in Target’s five-year strategy is Liza Amlani, the principal and co-founder of Retail Strategy Group.
Amlani commented, “Target’s investment should pay off as the strategy is embedded in the product and merchandising.”
She explained that Target needs to lean into what works well for them, such as its incredible brand collaborations, while improving efficiencies across product creation.
In addition, it should focus on increasing speed and flexibility in apparel production.
“This is where many [retail] brands fall short,” Amlani stated. “The time it takes to design, source and get product to market is an ongoing battle for brands because of the overly complicated product creation process. Once these processes are innovated, Target should be able to reach their 2030 goal.”