shop, while 59.6 per cent said higher prices overall would limit how much they buy or spend during the season. Interestingly, higher-earning parents are expected to spend less on school-related purchases this year than their lower-earning counterparts. And according to a separate survey by Deloitte, households making more than $200,000 a year plan to spend 20 per cent less than in 2025, whereas families earning less than $100,000 expect to spend more, largely because of higher prices. How are families shopping during the 2026 back-to-school season? In response to concerns about back-to-school spending, parents have been cutting costs by switching brands, buying in bulk, using cash-back websites and seeking retailers with lower prices, according to Deloitte’s research. “Value-seeking represents a durable shift in mindset rather than a short-term response to pricing pressure as consumers look to get more out of every dollar,” Deloitte said. Consumers are also increasingly turning to AI-powered shopping assistants to find deals. According to Coresight Research, 56.3 per cent of back-to-school shoppers have already used or may use AI tools such as ChatGPT or retailers’ website chatbots to help them shop for the coming school year. Meanwhile, 56.1 per cent of those shoppers use or expect to use the tools to compare prices across retailers, while 49.6 per cent use them to find deals. Coresight analyst Aditya Kaushik said inflation was reshaping the back-to-school season and making consumers more strategic in their shopping behaviour. Among those who expect gas prices to affect their shopping, around half plan to make fewer trips or visit more one-stop retailers such as Walmart, Target and Amazon.  “Among those who expect inflation to limit their spending, around three in five (58.5 per cent) will seek promotions and bulk discounts—the most widespread response. Shopping earlier and trading down (switching to lower-priced alternatives or private label) are also key strategies, cited by at least two in five respondents,” Kaushik said. As shoppers increasingly compare value, Coresight Research’s data suggests retailers should invest in in-store advertising. It was the most influential source of information for back-to-school shoppers this year, cited by 40 per cent of consumers. “This validates the role of physical and digital retail media as demand-generation tools, particularly during a compressed seasonal window when consumers are actively comparing prices, availability and product options,” Kaushik said. Retailers poised to gain an advantage – and those at risk of losing ground According to Kaushik, shoppers’ continued focus on value, convenience and reliability will shape the 2026 back-to-school season. Spending opportunities will be strongest for retailers and brands that can meet all three needs. Although low prices remain the biggest factor in retailer choice, consumers are also prioritizing product quality, availability and ease of shopping. “This dynamic should favor mass merchandisers and major omnichannel retailers, particularly Walmart, Target and Amazon, which offer broad assortments, competitive pricing and one-stop-shop convenience,” Kaushik said. Walmart appears particularly well positioned because of its broad appeal across income groups and strength among value-seeking households, Kaushik noted. Target and Amazon, meanwhile, have stronger opportunities among higher-income shoppers, who are more likely to prioritize convenience, curated assortments and flexible shopping options. Mass merchandisers such as Target and Walmart, retailers with diversified sourcing and agile supply chains such as Amazon, off-price retailers including Ross Stores and TJ Maxx, and dollar-store operators such as Dollar General and Five Below are all well positioned to win wallet share. Their broad assortments and value-focused offerings can help consumers navigate inflationary pressures. Retailers with strong private-label programs also have an advantage, as they can offer accessible price points while protecting margins. Digital-first players and retailers offering effective AI-enabled shopping tools, personalized deal discovery and easy price comparisons are similarly well placed to attract consumers using technology to stretch their budgets and reduce shopping friction. Conversely, retailers such as Kohl’s, which rely on low- to middle-income consumers who are switching to value retailers, could lose market share during the 2026 back-to-school season. Specialty or premium brands that lack pricing flexibility and clear value messaging may similarly lose ground to competitors better equipped to navigate rising costs and shifting consumer priorities. Smaller retailers may struggle most this season. They are less able to absorb cost increases and may be unable to compete on price with larger rivals, potentially ceding price-sensitive shoppers to them. Further reading: Why smart retailers are tapping into AI this back-to-school shopping season