The election looked like it would be uncomfortably close. 

Many Americans were steeling themselves for weeks of uncertainty and contention over the ballot count and election interference. In the end, these fears did not prove prescient. Donald Trump now has a far clearer mandate than the one he had in 2016, and while the final tallies are still being counted at the time of this writing, he may have even won the popular vote. 

Businesses like predictability over policy and dislike gridlock. A Republican sweep of all three branches of government, therefore, at least provides some measure of clarity. However, given Trump’s character, the prevalence of global turmoil, and the ongoing reality of social media-driven misinformation, there are still plenty of grounds to expect a turbulent ride. 

Some developments are already clear for American retailers. Trump has focused on raising tariffs throughout his campaign and now has the authority to see this through. 

As a result, consumers will be in for higher costs, and critiques of retailers over pricing are set to continue. There are also signs that many voters would welcome a focus on law and order and crackdowns over immigration. 

Additionally, the retail experience has become increasingly unpleasant, with the rise in shoplifting leading to locked cabinets in understaffed stores, which has led consumers to further shop online. 

Whether retailers manage to escape a spiral of cost-cutting measures remains to be seen.

What is the industry going to look like for consumer-facing retailers?

For consumer-facing businesses, the evolution of brand values and positioning is going to be especially fraught and unpredictable. 

The last Trump presidency saw an enormous rise in consumer and employee activism. 

Two initial developments provoked this: 

• Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, a legally binding international treaty that aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming, and his aggressive immigration crackdown. In response to these moves, big business rushed to declare “We Are Still In” and hundreds of Silicon Valley CEOs stood up in support of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) immigration program after Trump threatened to cancel it. 

• Secondly, 2020 brought about a Democratic-leaning government and the Covid-19 pandemic in swift succession. 2020 saw a large-scale reckoning over workers’ rights and benefits on the one hand, and systemic racism on the other. Yet, declarations that a new vision for capitalism had taken shape were premature.

By 2021, a backlash to this broad vibe shift was well underway. The Republican party began a sustained attack on environmental, social and governance (ESG) initiatives. The party began investing at the state level and challenged the “woke” rhetoric adopted by big brands.

For example, in 2021, Mike Pence argued that the progressive left was using ESG to achieve goals “it could never hope to achieve at the ballot box”. These early rumblings led to high-profile campaigns against Target and BudLight over supporting LGBTQIA+-related issues, and have now found full expression in the activist campaigns of Robby Starbuck, an American conservative activist. 

Starbuck has successfully managed to get a range of companies, including Tractor Supply, Lowe’s, Harley Davidson and Brown Forman to dial back on their diversity commitments and ESG goals. General Counsels have been warning CEOs for some time that they will face legal retaliation over commitments to environmental and social issues under a Trump presidency. Corporate America is moving gingerly forward in a new atmosphere of caution. 

But a Trump presidency does not in any way suggest that pressures over ESG and diversity, equity and inclusion campaigns are now “over”.

Why retailers need to move forward with inclusivity measures

Such declarations are not just premature, they ignore the wider context, which is sustained societal polarization. 

Data shows that C-suites in corporate America have become significantly more polarized over the last decade, and we increasingly live in a country of red mattress companies and blue mattress companies, red banks and blue banks. 

With liberal America despairing of meaningful policy progress on climate change and inclusion over the next few years, energy and attention will be redirected back toward employee and consumer activism. If you can’t rely on the government to take action on the topics you care about, the next best option is to pressure your employer or a brand. 

The ongoing, intractable reality is that large retailers are stuck between two unachievable visions. 

• From the Right, including a newly empowered Republican administration, the message is going to be simple: quit the “woke” messaging and go back to focusing on shareholder values and traditional family values. However, that’s an unachievable vision in the face of shifting generational expectations over what we buy and where we work. 

• From the Left, we can expect to see a resurgence of pressure on corporations, as frustrated voters, workers and consumers look for an outlet outside the policy sphere. This is likely to lead to more activism, more employee walkouts, and more pressure on companies that are seen to be implicated in everything from immigration crackdowns to fracking to failing to protect abortion rights. Not only are these debates not settled, consumer-facing businesses are going to be managing elevated expectations that they recommit to these topics. CEOs need to find a path through this treacherous terrain, in an atmosphere where the neutral middle ground remains a turbulent quicksand.

Successful retailers will build cultures and position their brands carefully, with clear acknowledgment that profound differences in visions and values exist. Cleaning up your own messes, focusing on your impact on human beings and putting worker rights and benefits at the center are not surefire routes out of the mire, but they will certainly help. 

More focus and more realism are needed, but most of all it will be important for leaders to hold their nerve, and not fall prey to governance by social media.