year, not least because consumers are extremely receptive to bargains and are seeking ways to make their budgets stretch further,” the managing director of GlobalData stated. However, he warned that the pace of growth will be relatively modest, and consumers will be very discerning about what they buy and where they spend their money.  “This means not all retailers will see gains, there will be a patchwork of winners and losers,” he said. How Black Friday 2024 stacks up  According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), last year saw 200.4 million people, a record-breaking number, shopping online and in-store between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday.  This was the highest number since NRF started tracking in-store and online traffic over the five-day period in 2017, surpassing the previous year’s figure of 196.7 million shoppers and even the NRF’s own forecast of about 182 million people. Coresight Research expects revenue growth to slow from 2.5 year-over-year in 2023 to 2 per cent year-over-year this year. Still, that would translate to $39.7 billion in retail sales over the Black Friday period.  Coresight analyst Sunny Zheng attributed the slowdown to a few factors, the first being the timing of this year’s post-Thanksgiving shopping frenzy.  This year, Black Friday falls five days later than it did in 2023, which has prompted consumers to start their holiday shopping early. Coresight data suggests that 52.3 per cent of consumers started their holiday shopping before November. Events in October, such as Amazon’s Big Deal Days, Target’s Target Circle Week and Walmart’s Holiday Deals, further pulled forward demand, impacting some consumers’ Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending.  Another factor contributing to a somewhat tempered event this year is the continuing labor shortage in the American retail industry.  “Retailers have struggled to recruit sufficient seasonal workers due to ongoing labor shortages, especially in the retail and warehousing sectors, where high turnover rates and competition for workers remain challenging,” Zheng told Inside Retail. The analyst warned that this could lead to reduced staffing levels on Black Friday, potentially affecting customer service, restocking times and overall operational efficiency.  To address these labor gaps, she noted that some retailers are offering higher wages, flexible schedules and additional benefits to attract seasonal staff. However, even with these incentives, many businesses are finding it difficult to keep up with demand.  To combat this particular challenge, Coresight said retailers should invest in online sales channels, including mobile apps and websites, to help manage customer demand while reducing strain on in-store staff.   Which retailers will come out on top? Zheng explained that the retailers poised to gain an advantage this year are leveraging technology, such as AI-powered shopping assistants or personalized recommendation engines, to differentiate themselves with tailored, efficient shopping experiences.  She pointed to Amazon’s Alexa-based deal tracking and Walmart’s AI-powered assistant as examples of how technology that simplifies decision-making for customers can ultimately drive loyalty and increase sales. These types of technological applications can also provide improved personalized recommendations and timely deal notifications, which in turn, encourage shoppers to make purchases during high-traffic periods, such as Black Friday, Zheng noted.  The research analyst also pointed out that brands that offer competitive pricing and significant discounts on essentials and high-demand items are likely to win on Black Friday, given consumers’ price sensitivity as of late.  In light of this, loyalty programs and memberships, such as Target Circle or Walmart+, could be a way to maintain customer engagement and drive holiday sales, Zheng observed.  For retailers that depend on Black Friday to drive a profitable holiday season, this year may prove a bit more difficult, as their competitors may have already captured a portion of sales with early-bird discounts. Ultimately, the retailers that have the strongest chance of “winning” Black Friday are those that have fully optimized omnichannel operations this season. Coresight observed that there 45 per cent of consumers intend to shop both online and in-store during Black Friday this year, compared to the 26 per cent who actually shopped on both channels during this time last year.  For any retailers worried about “missing out” on sales from BFCM, fear not. In the grand scheme of things, Black Friday and Cyber Monday are still expected to account for just 2.2 per cent of holiday sales between October and December, the same as last year and the year before.