The world’s best retailers – at least from an investor’s standpoint – are also among the most boring. There are some intuitive reasons why that might be true, and Walmart, the biggest retailer of them all, is a case in point. The CEO, Doug McMillon, has only ever worked for Walmart: He got a summer job there when he was in high school, unloading trucks at one of the company’s warehouses, and has never seen fit to alter his career path. On the company’s conference calls with inv
investors, McMillon talks animatedly about things like the prices of eggs and asparagus. The company itself has been in business for more than 60 years, selling groceries and low- to middle-end general merchandise, operates 10,500 stores in 19 countries and churns out, with monotonous regularity, annual revenues higher than the GDP of every country in Scandinavia.
It generates billions in cash flow, returns billions in dividends and share repurchases to its shareholders year in, and year out, and employs more than 2 million people. It stays out of trouble by not taking sides on issues that don’t concern its business directly, and by not falling for trendy marketing ideas that will alienate its core customer base. It makes investments only in energy efficiency and technology that will have a clear benefit to the bottom line. And to top it all off, the company’s slogan is “Save money. Live better.” Just how much more boring can you get?
And with that basic formula for success intact, for FY23 Walmart has again turned in a highly effective performance, reflected in its results for the fourth quarter and full-year, released on February 20.
Spoiler alert: the results might bore you
Consolidated fourth-quarter revenue rose by 5.7 per cent, year over year, to $173.4 billion at no sacrifice to the gross margin, which rose nearly 40 basis points, to 23.3 per cent. The top line benefited somewhat from currency fluctuations but not enough to take away from a fundamentally sound result. Global e-commerce increased by a whopping 23 per cent, to over $30 billion, amounting to nearly 18 per cent of company net sales. Comparable-store sales for Walmart US were up in the mid-single digits, assisted a little by inflation, although this effect was moderate compared with the base year. Walmart believes it achieved market share gains among higher-income brackets, suggesting that more affluent households have been trading down.
For the full year, company revenue was $648.1 billion, an increase of 6.0 per cent over 2022, yet another ‘mid-single-digit’ kind of increase. Tedious? Yes. Do some people think it is a really boring company? Yes, sure. Investors won’t care: the stock price is up nearly 10 per cent in the past month, about twice the gain of the broader market.
International: India, Mexico and China lead
The big three in Walmart’s sights outside the US are India, Latin America (including Mexico), and China, which the company predicts will account for three-quarters of its international growth over the next several years.
In the fourth quarter, Walmart International achieved net sales of $32.4 billion, up 17.6 per cent on the fourth quarter of 2022, benefiting partly from the opening of new stores. Full-year sales were $114.6 billion (plus 13.5 per cent on 2022). Constant currency sales were up by not quite as much but still in double-digits.
International e-commerce revenues breached 25 per cent – seven percentage points above the company average – in the fourth quarter for the first time, partly due to the timing of Flipkart’s ‘Big Billion Days’ October 8-15, an annual event that had previously been held in the third quarter and which offers big discounts on digital products and home furnishings, among other things.
In China, year-on-year sales grew by 11.3 per cent in the fourth quarter, to $4.0 billion, and by 6.6 per cent on a comparable-store basis. These numbers include Sam’s Club, which, along with e-commerce, are powering growth in China. E-commerce penetration is almost 50 per cent there, double the penetration in the International division as a whole. McMillon told investors on Walmart’s February 20 conference call: “If you look at their [China’s] progress over the last few years, they had a digital penetration of about 4 per cent in 2019. They’re now at 48 per cent so it’s almost 50/50 offline and online and we’re driving a profit through that business. So I think they’ve shown a path to really growing omni sales profitability.”
Despite the highly promotional nature of the Chinese market at the moment, Walmart’s gross profit margin was about flat in the fourth quarter of 2022.
China: The chatter is a bit negative
A lot of negative sentiment has gathered around the Chinese economy in recent months, partly due to well-documented fragility in the property market. However, retail sales have somewhat defied the odds, rising again in December by 7.4 per cent, year-on-year, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics reported. That followed gains of 10.1 per cent in November and 7.6 per cent in October. These results look more impressive than they are because they come off a pretty catastrophic base year: the two-year stack for December (the sum of per cent changes in December 2022 and December 2023) was only 5.6 per cent. Results will get particularly interesting henceforth, as the industry rounds on the heady months of last year.
Whatever happens in the short term, China is still important to Walmart’s international growth prospects. Currently, the international segment accounts for nearly 18 per cent of Walmart’s global revenues and China accounts for about 13 per cent of that. It’s not a market that the company is taking cavalierly and it will continue to open stores there, albeit mainly Sam’s Clubs in the immediate future.
Another boring year ahead?
It’s doubtful that anything other than another boring year from the world’s biggest retailer is coming our way. That’s the way Walmart’s leaders want it to be. So consumers, if you are looking for excitement and controversy, or for whatever is on the leading edge of fashion trends, you will probably need to look elsewhere, but in the knowledge that if its trendier peers exit the industry stage, Walmart will always be there for you.