In 2024, evolving consumer preferences, shifting retail models, improved technical capabilities, and other key trends will drive change in US retailing. In adapting to these trends and the new retail environment, retailers need to respond to short-term consumer needs while securing longer-term success. 1. Alternative retail channels represent incremental opportunities We expect cautious spending behaviours among some shoppers to push more consumers toward alternative, typically price-compe
-competitive retail models such as resale and marketplaces. For retailers, these alternatives present potential incremental business opportunities, and companies can consider whether the addition of a secondhand channel or a marketplace provides a complement to their core business. To suggest the scale of the opportunity, Coresight Research estimates that the US fashion resale market will grow by 13.1 percent, year-over-year, in 2024, to $36.0 billion.
We are seeing the growth of online marketplaces as an alternative channel. In the past two years, many retailers have launched online marketplaces, including Kohl’s, Macy’s, Michaels and Shein.
Recommendations for retailers
Leverage physical stores to drive customer traffic, as shoppers can bring in secondhand products and browse to make purchases in the same trip.
Focus on personalization by leveraging customer data and feedback to enhance alternative retail models.
Launch curated marketplaces to meet consumer demand.
2. Consumers’ attention span is declining
We appear to be seeing the gradual ‘death of the attention span’, and we see no reason for that trend to let up in 2024. The average consumer’s screen attention span has decreased from 150 seconds in 2004 to just 47 seconds in 2023, the American Psychological Association states. This has implications for retailers, which must compete more aggressively for the attention of shoppers. This has implications for US retail, such as reduced brand engagement and lower conversion rates, affecting retailers’ revenues. However, shorter attention spans could also lead to impulse buying, on which retailers should look to capitalize.
Recommendations for retailers
Make marketing messages and product displays more engaging and attention-grabbing, such as through gamification.
Leverage shoppable video and livestreaming to attract shoppers, including those looking for greater engagement and even entertainment.
Invest in data/artificial intelligence-enabled content for personalization.
3. Sustainability remains a concern
Despite sustained and new pressures on consumers, sustainability remains a key concern for US shoppers. Coresight Research data confirms the continued demand for sustainability initiatives among US consumers: In a survey conducted in September 2023, 37 percent of US consumers said that sustainability affects their shopping to at least some extent. Our survey found that consumers are most concerned about the aspects of sustainability that they can most obviously see and feel, such as the use of recycled and recyclable packaging.
Recommendations for retailers
Source items from environmentally conscious suppliers and highlight the eco-friendly aspects of your offerings through marketing and communication channels.
Retailers are likely to get the best bang for their buck by focusing on aspects of sustainability that consumers can see for themselves, rather than issues earlier in the supply chain. For example, they can implement sustainable packaging practices.
Authority in sustainability requires commitment over the long term. Many retailers should look to create and promote a transparent supply chain, and adopt green initiatives in operations, such as energy-efficient practices.
4. Retail crime is in the spotlight
Heightened concern about retail crime among US retail companies is shared by consumers, whose shopping behavior is likely to be affected by retailers’ measures to combat theft. A Coresight Research survey conducted in July 2023 found that US consumers are aware of the current theft-prevalent environment and are concerned about what it means for them: 56 percent of respondents are concerned (moderately, very or extremely) that stores serving their community may be closed due to retailers experiencing high levels of theft. Seventeen percent would shop elsewhere and 25 percent would move online if their local store put items under lock and key. Seventy-three percent are concerned (moderately to extremely) that retailers will raise prices to cover the cost of increasing retail theft, and 64 percent are concerned (moderately to extremely) with the ability of their local governments to enforce the law.
Recommendations for retailers
Invest in security technology, including CCTV cameras with facial recognition capabilities and electronic article surveillance systems, as well as RFID for inventory tracking.
Optimize store layouts and arrange merchandise strategically to improve visibility and deter shoplifting.
Employ data and predictive analytics tools to identify patterns related to organized retail crime and anticipate potential threats.
Strengthen cybersecurity protocols to protect sensitive customer and business data.
Provide comprehensive training for employees on identifying and preventing organized retail crime.
5. The Ozempic economy has arrived
Coresight Research has pointed to greater concern for wellness as a structural consumer trend over a number of years. In 2024, we expect this shift to be given a boost by the increased adoption of weight-loss drugs. GLP-1 weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic can prompt a 20-30 percent average reduction in calorie consumption among users, and this opportunity confronts an estimated 109 million obese US adults – so there are big opportunities for knock-on impacts.
We are seeing a substantial shift in the shopping habits of consumers using weight loss drugs such as Ozempic. For instance, they are consuming fewer carbonated soft drinks, snack foods and fast foods, and less alcohol. They are also smoking less. While this affects retailers selling these products, we are seeing a positive impact from the Ozempic economy on the beauty, wellness and apparel categories.
Recommendations for retailers
Regularly monitor consumer behavior, stay informed about Ozempic-related developments, and adjust strategies accordingly. At its most basic, companies must review whether the changes resulting from this trend present an opportunity or a threat to their business.
Create product lines or promotions that resonate with the values and preferences of the demographic that is driving the Ozempic economy.
Explore collaborations with Ozempic-related businesses to increase visibility and attract customers.
Food retailers can offer a range of health-focused products, including diabetic-friendly foods and snacks, to attract customers who are conscious of their diet.
Notes and methodology: Informing the data in this report are online surveys of US consumers aged 18-plus, conducted by Coresight Research in February 2023 (2,000 respondents), July 2023 (406 respondents), August 2023 (447 respondents) and September 2023 (408 respondents). At a total level, the results have a margin of error of +/- 5 percent, with a 95 percent confidence interval.
Coresight Research market sizes typically include multiyear projections generated through machine learning models such as Prophet or SARIMA. These models identify correlations between historical data sets and a range of exogenous values, and generate projections based on selected indicators, adjusting for factors such as seasonality and outliers. Experienced sector analysts review and may adjust those automated projections based on qualitative factors and industry knowledge.
This story first appeared in the December 2023 issue of Inside Retail US magazine.