April proved to be another robust month for retail, with overall sales rising by 4.6 per cent. It is also worth noting that the prior month’s preliminary figures also got an upgrade – moving from 4.5 per cent to 4.7 per cent growth. Both show that consumers have real resilience.
This is also reflected in the core retail number, which strips out gasoline, automotive and foodservice. Here, sales were up by a very strong 4.9 per cent. And, like the overall number, last month’s figure was upgraded to 6.3 per cent growth – albeit, as we have noted previously, off the back of a weak prior year comparative.
All that said, there are several devils in the detail that need to be explored. The first of these is the dramatic spike in gas prices. Excluding gas stations – where sales rose by a whopping 21.2 per cent – overall retail sales growth was still good, but a more modest 3.3 per cent.
The second is that inflation continues to flatter the numbers. On a volume basis, overall retail sales increased by 1.3 per cent and core retail sales increased by 1.2 per cent. These are actually good uplifts compared to volume growth of the past year or so, but the uplifts are nowhere near as impressive as the headline numbers.
The third is that some of the punchiness (in value and volume terms) was aided by higher tax refunds, which ran well ahead of last year and boosted the amount consumers had to play with. That’s very helpful, but it is more of a temporary lift than a permanent feature of consumer spending this year.
Of course, these details help to explain the apparent disconnect between consumer sentiment, which remains low, and spending, which, at the headline level, remains high. In many instances, the growth is driven by higher prices on essentials. And although consumers will bear this, they don’t do so with any particular joy. Indeed, it contributes to a feeling of unease over finances – especially among lower- and middle-income consumers.
Fortunately, the pressures also create an attitude of consolation spending where people will indulge a little to offset the various pressures and uncertainties they feel. We see this coming through in some of the category numbers.
Sales at apparel stores, for example, have risen by 5.6 per cent over the past two months – although it is notable that April growth deteriorated from March’s high. There has been a bit of splurging here, helped along by tax refunds. The focus has been on premium indulgences such as handbags, small accessories, and closet refreshes for everyday apparel. All things that make consumers feel better. That said, inflation has picked up notably across apparel in the past couple of months, so volume gains are not quite so heady.
Electronics stores also had one of their best months in ages, with sales up by 9.1 per cent in April. While this is mainly a function of people spending their tax windfalls, it reflects an attitude that treats much of the growth as coming from personal devices and consumer electronics, rather than from more essentials-driven categories like appliances.
Aside from electronics, some of the bigger-ticket sectors continue to lag. Auto sales declined by 1.3 per cent, pushing year-to-date growth into negative territory. Here, high interest rates and higher prices are putting many consumers off buying vehicles.
The same dynamic could be applied to home furnishings retailers, where sales declined by 3.4 per cent this month. As we have noted before, we think the Census Bureau reporting overstates the weakness in the category, as it does not include furnishings sales from non-specialists, which have been growing. Nor does it reflect the solid performances of Wayfair and others in the space.
Overall, retailers will be pleased with the start to the year. However, they are also cautious about whether the robust growth levels will persist.